World Cup Model Update 11/7

Hey y'all-

Couple updates to the World Cup model as we get closer and closer to kickoff, 2 weeks from today!  There have been several friendlies played which has updated a couple ratings for teams, and I've also chosen to make an adjustment to Senegals rating, specifically removing results from the COSAFA Cup- which was a competition in which they lost a significant amount to their Elo rating, but were using none of their 1st team players, and isn't really indicative of their strength as a side.

That being said- here's where the model falls!

Forecast Overview

Group Stage Overview/Game Forecasts

Bracket Projection

*a note about the bracket projections:  this uses the model to predict the most likely team in every particular spot in the knockout stage.  Due to Group B's competitiveness in the 2/3/4 spots, England is actually the most likely team to finish 1st, and 2nd, resulting in them shown on this bracket twice.  After the 1st round of games in the cup this will almost assuredly resolve.  If the model were forced to give a 2nd team it would be Iran.


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