World Cup Update - After 11/22 Matches

 Saudi Arabia the absolute madmen!!

One of the biggest upsets in World Cup history (tied for 3rd all time biggest, by Elo rating, +57).  Groups C and D got their first matches down today, and nothing incredibly surprising happened beyond the Saudis surprising the 2nd biggest tournament favorites, Argentina.

Group C still sees Argentina as the favorite to top the group (as they are still considered by far the strongest team) but their work is cut out for them to get there.  Saudi Arabia emerges as the likely 2nd place finisher, especially given Mexico and Poland's scoreless draw.

Group D is a little more straightforward with France still the odds on favorite and Denmark a clear second (although the gap between them and Tunisia has lessened). Australia has shown they'll be no pushover, and France clearly are very formidable (champion's curse be damned!)

Model Summary

Group Stage Forecast

Odds Changes by Group

Knockout Stage Projection

Forecast for tomorrow's games


  1. Canada 3-0 over Belgium tomorrow. You can sign the check now.
    @Dope, what was the biggest World Cup upset by Elo rating in history?

  2. Biggest upset was Ghana over the Czech Republic in 2006 (+ 82pts), 2nd was South Korea over Germany in 2018 (+80 pts). Saudi Arabia’s win ties the USA over England in 1950 :)


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