World Cup Update - After 11/23 Matches

 Japan with the surprise of the day!!!

Japan shocked Germany in what is the 2nd biggest upset, by elo exchanged (+44), so far this tournament.  It has given Japan a rocket up in their odds to advance, with one of the 2 giants in their group behind them and 3 points to take with them.  They have a 72 % chance to advance from here, and Germany's dropped to only 25%... meaning they'll need a win against Spain to stand a chance of advancing, in all likelihood.  Spain set the goal differential tiebreaker discussion to bed in this group with a 7-0 stomp of Costa Rica... not much to say here unfortunately.  Spain good.

In Group F, Croatia hurt their chances and Morocco helped their cause in a scoreless draw... leaving the door open for Canada, who looked very dangerous against Belgium, to claw up over either one of them.  This group feels wide open, as Belgium doesn't seem to be the juggernaut that they've been billed as in the last decade.

Model Summary

Group Stage Forecast

Odds Changes by Group

Knockout Stage Projection

Forecast for tomorrow's games


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