World Cup Update - After 11/29 Matches

Four teams have officially booked their tickets to the knockout stage after 3rd round games concluded in Groups A and B, it's The Netherlands, Senegal, England, and the USA.

Group A had one of the most interesting games of the day, as Senegal were able to pull out a wild result with their backs against the wall against Ecuador to secure 2nd place in the group.  Netherlands put Qatar out of their misery with a less dramatic 2-0 victory to win the group.

Group B was drama filled to the last moment, as the United States lasted 100' against a charging Iran side to clinch the 1-0 victory to clinch their trip to the RO16 to face The Netherlands.  England, in straightforward fashion much like Holland, dispatched Wales 3-0 to win the group.

Model Summary

Group Stage Forecast

Odds Changes by Group

Knockout Stage Projection

Forecast for tomorrow's games


  1. Do we know why Senegal's "Chance to Advance" percentages are higher than the US', even though the US' Elo is higher? Is it because the model is taking into account the Elo of their different possible opponents at each stage of the knockouts?

    1. Yeah- the scoring model is based almost entirely off of elo difference in any given game, not just individual team elos. So since the difference between the Netherlands and USA (+211 elo) is bigger than England and Senegal (+146 elo), the modeled gap will end up being larger. In elimination games this also figures into the odds of wins by penalty shootout


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