World Cup Update - After 11/30 Matches

Four more teams have officially booked their tickets to the knockout stage after 3rd round games concluded in Groups C and D, it's France, Australia, Argentina, and Poland.

Group C 's matchup between France and Tunisia was mostly academic as a heavily-rotated France squad lost a tight 1-0 to Tunisia, who celebrated a moral victory, as they were eliminated due to Australia's 2nd half heroics against Denmark.  Denmark become the 2nd UEFA team eliminated so far, and Australia are the first AFC team in the round of 16.

Group D was drama-filled to the very last second, as both games were incredibly live.  Each team came into today able to clinch their own advancement or be sent packing.  The "chaos scenario" existed briefly when both games were locked at 2-0 (Argentina and Mexico leading).  If it finished as such, Poland would have edged Mexico for 2nd place only by Fair Play points tiebreaker.  Saudi Arabia grabbed a late goal to ease the drama a bit, and Mexico become the 2nd CONCACAF team headed home, as Argentina comes back from an opening-round defeat to win the group (not bragging, but I never wrote them off, giving them a 72% chance to advance even after the Saudi Arabia loss.  Check the cups)

Model Summary

Group Stage Forecast

Odds Changes by Group

Knockout Stage Projection

Forecast for tomorrow's games