World Cup Update - After 12/1 Matches

Four more teams confirmed their spots into the knockout stage today, bringing the total so far to 12, with the final 4 to be confirmed tomorrow.  Today's qualifiers are Morocco, Croatia, Japan, and Spain.

Group E was a wild affair in both games.  Morocco came into the day in the driver's seat of the group, and scored an early goal with some #WPOOTBGW content by Canada, and then held on to win 2-1 and qualify 1st in the group, becoming the 2nd CAF team to advance to knockouts.  With Morocco winning, the Belgium-Croatia game was a win-and-you're-in affair (Croatia holding the draw advantage).  Belgium was not short of chances at goal, as Romelu Lukaku had 1.98 xG in the game on his own, but couldn't convert anything as the Red Devils are knocked out in groups for the first time in a generation.  Croatia advances in 2nd place.

Group F was back and forth until the final whistle in both games, with all 4 teams at some point in the 90' sitting in advancement spots, and elimination spots.  As it finished, Japan were able to hold onto a frenzied 2-1 victory over Spain to win the group.  Spain holds on to finish 2nd in the group as Germany clobbered Costa Rica 4-2, but ended up 5 goals short of how many they'd need to surpass Spain in GD.  One group predicted to be wild out of the gate delivered in a big way, with the craziest final day, in a tournament with some pretty crazy final days already.

Model Summary

Group Stage Forecast

Odds Changes by Group

Knockout Stage Projection

Forecast for tomorrow's games


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