World Cup Update - RO16 Day 4

Day 4 of round of 16 games, much like day 3, had one game FULL of drama, and another one almost entirely bereft of it.

Game 1 today pitted surprise Group F winners Morocco against Group E runners up Spain.  Despite the seeding, Spain were favorites in this match, which went all the way to the death of extra time, 0-0.  Despite having, presumably, watched Japan throw away a chance at the final 8 by missing every PK they took, Spain couldn't bury a single one.  Morocco punctuated their upset victory with a Hakimi paninka right down main street, and Morocco cheese their way into the Quarterfinal to face Portugal.

Game 2 matched Group H winners Portugal against Group G runners up Switzerland.  According to betting odds, this matchup was predicted to be the closest in the round of 16, and it... well... wasn't.  Despite missing newly minted Al-Nassr man Ronaldo in the starting lineup, the Portuguese piled on 6 goals en route to a dominating victory over Shaqiri and friends, 6-1.  They move on to play Morocco in the Quarterfinal.

Model Summary

Odds Changes in Round

Knockout Stage Current State / Projection

Forecast for Quarterfinals in a separate post tomorrow!


  1. Thank you!! I've been f5ing this website for the past 5 min. It is interesting how Spain was favorite in this brachet but only won 3 WC matches since they became World Champions in 2010

    1. Hey thanks Victor! Yeah the model is totally elo-based, so it has no bias towards preferring teams that have performed well historically in the World Cup, or otherwise. It takes all matches into account (although WC matches move elo ratings more than any other matches). I had Spain as about 67/33 favorites over Morocco, so a draw then penalty loss doesn't seem out of the norm for that outcome! If you have other questions about the model I'll be happy to answer more!

    2. This is great! I always share this website with my friends. I am an engineer and statistics and numbers are usually the norm for me. I appreciate your hard work!


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