UEFA Outlook 2023

Sup y'all-

UEFA is often the most interesting confederation in years outside of the World Cup, because it's got the next best tournament, namely EURO.  2023 will begin qualification for Euro 2024, hosted in Germany.  Matches will begin in March, so teams will be back at it competing for a spot in the field of 2024.

But first - a couple of playoffs / playouts are still in play for 22/23 Nations League.  These will determine the winners of Nations League, and the teams that will be relegated from League C to League D.

UEFA Nations League Finals

UEFA Nations League Relegation Playouts (League C)

Euro Qualifying Model

Group Models

Groups are mostly pretty competitive this time around.  The majority of top seeds have almost guaranteed (> 95%) trips to Germany for Euros, but a lot of the 2/3 spots are still way up in the air.  Here is a metric for gorup competitiveness:

Cumulative Odds to qualify for non-top 2 teams (by group)

Group A is clearly the most competitive, with Scotland and Norway neck and neck for the 2nd place spot (could come down to who gets the best result again Spain).
Groups I and J are competitive largely due to poorer #2 teams by elo, and comparable #3 teams Group I - (Israel 1620 / Romania 1610), Goup J - (Bosnia & Herzegovina 1616 / Slovakia 1580).
Group B is far and away the most likely to go to chalk, with the 2 strongest teams in Euro by elo (France and Netherlands), and a relatively weak 3rd team in Greece.

Way-too-early Euro Model

Who asked for this? No one.
Happy February guys


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