CONCACAF Gold Cup 2023

Sup y'all-

I hope you are ready to get concacafey.  I know I am.  This summer the US (and Canada a little) will host the 17th edition of the Gold Cup, to crown the champions of CONCACAF (and Qatar, somehow).  The USA are defending champs, and the highest rated team entering the tournament, but Mexico and Canada both have ideas to challenge that reign.

Overall Model

Due to all the reasons listed above (plus home field advantage), the USA is the clear favorites to repeat as champions of North America.  Of course, this model assumes that every country will play their full strength, which may or may not be the case this summer.  Since CONCACAF Nations League Finals will take place close to the Gold Cup, top teams may split their squads, so feel free to price that in yourself.

Preliminary Round

One of the more exciting parts of the most recent iteration of the Gold Cup is the qualifying tournament, taking place at DRV PNK Stadium in Ft. Lauderdale, immediately before the main tournament.

Favorites to make it to the group stage are Caribbean favorites Guyana, Martinique, and French Guiana.  But all 3 finals matches will likely prove to be fights to the death, as anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament.

Group Stage

Once the preliminary tournament concludes, we'll head into group stages, played in single-round robins, with the top 2 from each group of 4 moving on to the knockout round.  Groups will be played at various sites around the country (and a couple in Canada).

Group B is odd due to Qatar being the de-facto 4th seed, but being favored over Haiti and Honduras to push to the knockout stage.  But can the World Cup hosts keep spirits up to do so after a somewhat... lackluster World Cup performance?  The USA and Canada seemed to benefit more than anyone from the draw, both being heavy favorites to move on.  Meanwhile Costa Rica and Panama cannot keep from seeing each other in seemingly every competitive draw in CONCACAF.  This will likely be the battle of 2 titans of 2026 CONCACAF Qualifying, given that the big 3 will not be involved.