Women's World Cup Model

Sup y'all!

I've been asked by a bunch of folks about creating a model for the upcoming Women's World Cup in Australia & New Zealand, but the problem is finding reliable elo ratings for the women's game.  Luckily though, I was able to come across some good quality data from @Odriozolite on twitter and here we go!!

Overall Model

A couple things you'll notice off the bat is that elo values for Women's soccer are larger, at least the teams that have qualified to the World Cup...and since I am not as intimately knowledgable about the history of this given elo rating I can't be 100% sure of the reason for this, but one explanation is that there is still a large skill gap in the women's game, particularly internationally as larger footballing nations have a considerable head start on smaller nations for their women's team (this gap doesn't exist nearly to the extent in men's soccer, for a lot of reasons).  As time goes on I'd expect this gap to lessen as more and more places continue to add support for the women's game (as they should).

As to the model, we obviously have a handful of favorites, with only 11 teams showing greater than a .5% chance to raise the trophy.  There are a few clear levels of teams, with some of the less talented nations at the bottom with only a puncher's chance to shake up the perceived hierarchy.  The USA is projected to be the favorite to win, and this is in spite of being the #2 strongest team by elo, but having a little bit more favorable projected path to the final in the knockout stage.  Traditional European powerhouses are the remaining favorites, with England, France, and Germany the other teams showing a >10% chance to win the whole thing.

Group Stage

Groups are projected to be moderately lopsided, with a number of fairly large divides in elo strength between the favorites and underdogs in some groups.  Group F seems particularly unbalanced, as France and Brazil look to run the score up against CONCACAF opponents Jamaica (in their 2nd ever world cup) and Panama (debutantes this year).

Group A is set to be by far the most competitive, as New Zealand gets a home field bump for the majority of the tournament, and the Philippines are among the strongest 4th team in any group, every match in that group should be a blast.

Odds Chart

Overall- it's set to be a great World Cup, starting in about a week.  Hoping for good games and no major injuries

Love y'all-

dopeisland