EURO '24 Qualifying - After Rounds 5 & 6

Sup y'all-

Another international break down in EURO qualifying.  We don't have any clinched qualified teams yet, but we have a few that are pretty much sewn up, and a handful of minnows have officially bowed out of qualification.  Big results were:

Albania 2 - 0 Poland

Poland takes a huge shot to their qualification chances, and underdogs Albania take a massive step towards booking their ticket to Germany 2024.  These 2 teams become by far the biggest movers in qualification chances over this window (Albania +60%, Poland -28%).  Both teams have similar schedules moving forward, with both yet to play Group E favorite Czechia at home, and additional games vs. Moldova and the Faroes.  It will take Albania dropping more points than Poland vs Czechia AND dropping points against Moldova for Poland to claw back.  Tough road ahead for Lewandowski's crew.

Luxembourg 3 - 1 Iceland

If one result can confirm the end of an era for a previously up-and-coming European nation, this may be it.  Luxembourg took it to the EURO 2016 Quarterfinalists and were the 2nd biggest winners of the week, as far as qualification chance increase (+ 17%).  The result wasn't as big a shift for Iceland, as their chances are already pretty long to begin with.

Biggest Winners / Losers

Overall Model

Group Stage Model

More after the next round of games!

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