European Championship 2024

Sup y'all-

Haven't posted in a while!! International calendar is back on, and after the March window we have a clear view of the 24 team field for Euros '24 hosted in Germany!  It took 9 matches, 24 goals, and 2 penalty shootouts (both in finals) to welcome the 3 final teams to the field: Poland, Ukraine, and tournament debutantes Georgia!!

Ukraine enters as the best rated team of the 3 playoff entrants, with the 10th highest odds (1.54%) to win the tournament, and a whopping 82.4% chance to make it to the knockout round.  Poland and Georgia are among the bottom-dwellers in the odds table, with Poland only above Georgia in overall odds to win.  To be fair to Poland, they are the victims of a nightmare group draw joining France, Netherlands, and Austria in group D.  Georgia joins group F, which has on average 120 elo rating lower than Poland's opponents... tough stuff for the Lewandowski crew.

France comes in as heavy favorites, with almost 1/4 of the odds to hold the trophy in July, and over 50% odds to even make the semifinals!  This is even coming with a tough group... but such a challenge isn't as big a hurdle for top teams, as the format is rather forgiving for non-bottom dwellers to make it from 24 teams down to 16.  This is seen in a surprising 10 teams having 80% or greater odds to move onto the Round of 16.  But odds fall quickly after that, as only 9 teams enter the tournament with even a 10% or greater chance of making the finals.

Albania and Poland (shoutout to my friend Fraj) are the 2 clearest teams with long rows to hoe in this tournament, as they have 81% and 64% odds respectively to finish dead last in their groups, and 2% or lower odds to finish top.  Not zero though!!!

As for the projected bracket from day 1, we would have some real classic matchups ahead of us, like England-France in the semifinal (rematch of World Cup Quarterfinal), Belgium-Italy in the RO16 (Rematch of Euro 2020 Quarterfinal), and Hungary - Croatia in the Round of 16 (up and comers vs old guard).  Surely this bracket won't be spot on, but it gives a view of what might happen if things go to chalk!

Watch my twitter (@dopeisland23) for match predictions as we come closer to the tournament this summer!



  1. Love your work and your model is fantastic. Is there anywhere that it could be downloaded as an Excel file or shared as a Google doc? I'd be interested in running the numbers with some variations of different Elo ratings

    1. I don't typically share my full model files, but if you send me an email I can see what might interest you


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