Euros '24 (After Group Stage Match 2)

Sup y'all-

2 games down, 1 match to go in group stage for each team at Euro 2024!! So far we have 3 teams directly qualified for the round of 16--Germany, Spain, and Portugal.  Several other teams are on 4 points already, which is almost assuredly good enough to qualify for the next round.

That means Switzerland, England, France, and Netherlands are for all intents and purposes through to the knockouts.  That is 7 teams, with 9 spots left to fill and 16 teams alive to try to fight for them!!  Only Albania and Georgia are really long shots (< 7% odds to qualify), and everyone else has at least a 30% or better shot to make it, meaning every game from here on out in group stage will be decisive!

The Model

Groups

Projected Bracket

Changes

Croatia remained the biggest droppers of the 2nd round (Poland the most decisive obviously, as the only team eliminated, but weren't likely to qualify anyway).  Austria were the largest climbers by way of their win over Poland, as well as the draw between France and Netherlands....additionally other results that have made 3 points likely good enough across the board.

Third Round Matches

Update on it coming home: 4/10

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