Euros '24 (After Group Stage)

Sup y'all-

Well that's a pretty epic group stage in the books!! First ever team to miss the knockouts while getting 4 points (Ukraine), a first time team in the knockouts (Georgia) in their first ever Euros!!  Most of the favorites are onto the knockout (basically everyone but Croatia, who may truly be on the wrong side of their golden generation's peak) but not necessarily in the spots you'd think they'd be in. France is surprised to see a team like Belgium this early, meanwhile teams like the Netherlands feel pretty lucky to get a matchup with Romania in the RO16 (although they are no slouches!)  Let's take a look at the odds from here on out.

The Model

Projected Bracket


Obviously a big change for a lot of teams as the group stage ended, but it's obvious that Ukraine and Czechia are 2 teams that truly fumbled the bag in the last round to miss out on the knockout stage.  Austria is the biggest gainer for overall odds to win (as they have a moderately easy path, and gained some valuable elo [+45] over the group stage).

Ro16 Matches

Update on it coming home: +2.72%



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