Euros '24 (days 3 & 4)

 Sup y'all-

Game in the books for 5 out of 6 groups at Euro '24... and the surprises haven't stopped! The favorites have not necessarily come out with all the results they should have (lookin at you, Belgium and Denmark), and even those who did win didn't all do so convincingly (England and France, particularly).  

Belgium were one big loser odds-wise of these games, falling from a 96% to a 76% chance to move onto the knockout stage (showing how foolproof this format really is for the larger nations).  Slovakia in turn rose heavily, rocketing from 43% chance to qualify all the way up to 84% (highest in the group!!), but they were out-risen by Romania, going from 37% to over 90% to qualify, showing the strength of goal differential in this tight of a group stage format (plenty of sims have 3 pts, +3 GD as good enough to go through).  Ukraine, as a result of the same concept, dropped from a pre-match 85% chance to move on down to 33%... tough road ahead of them with both points and GD to make up.

Denmark fell from 68% to 60% and Serbia only dropped 63% to 53% (England and France both largely unchanged, moving up a bit in the upper 90s).  Lots of movement in this format where truly every goal matters.

The Model


Tomorrow's Matches

Will Ronaldo start tomorrow? (Yes).  Will Georgia impress at their first Euros? (Literally no idea because I also have no idea how good Türkiye is either.  Gonna be good!!



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