Euros '24 (Days 6 & 7)

Sup y'all-

Halfway through the group stage at Euro '24!!! Groups A, B, and C are complete with 2/3 matches in groups, and we have 2 teams qualified officially for the RO16 as Germany and Spain punch their tickets with 2 wins so far.

England has likely done enough to get through (99.96%) but look shaky and confidence in Southgate's decision making is approaching an all-time low.

Surprisingly only 1 team in this group of 12 are close to out of it yet, with Albania just below a 5% chance to qualify...every other squad has at least a 30% chance to move on as of now--as can be seen in the graphic below showing that 3 points is likely to be good enough for a lot of teams this tournament.

In all simulations, 3 points gets you through most of the time

The Model



The massive change so far in this round is Croatia's drop, coming in as one of the tournament favorites and now hovering around only a 1/3 chance to advance to the knockout stage.  The other favorites were beneficiaries of this as can be seen in rises of chances to win of Germany, Spain, and even the Netherlands who have gained 2.5% odds without even kicking a ball yet.

Second Round Matches remaining

Update on it coming home: ehhhhhhh



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