Euros '24

Sup y'all-

It's been a while!  Pretty soon I'll post a summary of the latest WC Qualifying window... but for now we're talkin Euros!  First game is Friday and all the warmup friendlies are done, so elos have settled.  Look for updates here every day after matches, as we follow all the action in Germany.

Without ado, onto the Model.

The Model

I am hereby announcing France as my tournament favorite, but not even as heavy as a 5/1 favorite.  As major tournament fields go, this one is pretty wide open with 4 teams over 10% odds to take the trophy in Berlin in July.  France has shown well at all the recent major tournaments, save potentially Euro '20 where they went out in the round of 16 to a surprise Switzerland in penalties (tough).  There are 9 teams with at least a 5% chance to be the last team standing, and I think most people wouldn't be surprised to see any of them win (but real surprises would start with the likes of Ukraine, Austria, or analytics darlings Hungary taking it all).

Groups

Group B seems to be at first glance the most competitive... it's the only group in which no team has a 50% or greater odds of topping the group.  It's odd due to having 3 legit title contenders and.... well Albania--good luck boys.

Given that this format is wildly forgiving (only 1/3 of the field eliminated in groups) we may not glean much from this stage.  We'll likely see 1 or 2 surprising early exits (potentially one of the group B teams if they all spread points out).  Group E is the most lopsided down the middle, with Belgium and Ukraine seeming on paper to clearly outclass Slovakia and Romania but one can never be so sure.

Overall, not much more to say.  It's one of the best tournaments around and I can't wait to watch games all month.  Hope you enjoy as much as I'm going to!

dopeisland